Why Raila Odinga Lost the AUC Top Seat: Diplomatic View
On
the 15th of February, The African Union Commission (AUC)
elections took place, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Djibouti's Foreign Minister,
Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, was elected as the new Chairperson of the AUC. This got
mixed reactions across the continent but especially in Kenya. In the same
election, Kenya had a candidate, the former Prime Minister, Raila Amolo Odinga.
Where did it all go wrong? Let's first go back to when it began.
The Official Unveil
Three
heads of state, Yoweri Museveni, president of Uganda, Samia Suluhu, president
of Tanzania, and Salva Kiir, president of South Sudan, among other dignitaries,
gathered in the state house in Nairobi, where President William Ruto officially
unveiled Raila Odinga as a candidate for the upcoming AUC elections.
There
was something special about this, Raila Odinga was the opposition leader and
working together with the president surely was destined for greatness. This
however was not the first time that Kenya had unveiled a candidate for the AUC
top position.
Back in 2016, Kenya nominated Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Amina
Mohamed as its candidate for the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson
position. President Uhuru Kenyatta announced her candidacy on October 4, 2016. Despite
Kenya's vigorous lobbying efforts, the election, held in January 2017, resulted
in the selection of Chadian Foreign Minister Moussa Faki Mahamat as the new AUC
Chairperson.
What
was special this time however is that Raila Odinga was well known across the
continent and the government of Kenya was fully behind him with all the support
he would need.
The Campaigns
In the months leading up to the
African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson election on February 15, 2025, Raila
Odinga hit the ground running, determined to secure Africa’s top diplomatic
job. His campaign wasn’t just about political maneuvering—it was a full-on
diplomatic marathon.
Odinga traveled the continent,
meeting with presidents, ministers, and influential leaders, making his case
for a stronger, more united Africa. His vision? An African Union that wasn’t
just a talking shop but a real force in global affairs. Countries like Uganda,
Algeria, Botswana, Ghana, Malawi, and Rwanda publicly declared their support.
The Candidates
During
the election debate, we were introduced to all three candidates who took turns
to discuss their vision to Africa.
Mahmoud
Ali Youssouf: Serving as
Djibouti's Foreign Minister since 2005, Youssouf brought extensive diplomatic
experience to his candidacy. The most notable thing from him was his ability to
speak three different languages throughout the debate.
Raila
Odinga: A seasoned Kenyan
politician and former Prime Minister, Odinga was a well-known figure in African
politics.
Richard
Randriamandrato:
Madagascar's former Foreign Minister, Randriamandrato emphasized the need for
African solidarity and proactive conflict mediation.
The Election
The
elections were held on 15th February where heads of states went to
the secret ballot. The
election process was rigorous, extending over seven rounds of voting. In the
initial rounds, Raila Odinga led, securing 20 votes in the first round and 22
in the second. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf garnered 18 and 19 votes in these rounds,
respectively, while Richard Randriamandrato received 10 votes in the first
round, which decreased to 7 in the second.
As the rounds progressed, Randriamandrato's
support diminished, leading to his exit after the third round leaving the
remaining two candidates. The contest then intensified between Odinga and
Youssouf throughout the next 3 rounds with only fine margins separating the
candidates. By the seventh and final round, Youssouf secured a decisive victory
with 33 votes, surpassing the required two-thirds majority of the 49 eligible
votes. Odinga received 14 votes in this concluding round.
The next thing was news headlines
in Kenya, “Raila Odinga eliminated in the 6th round.” Many were surprised at Odinga's
loss while others celebrated. Those with diplomatic knowledge knew that the
loss was more to the president than his candidate.
The Loss on a Diplomatic View
You see, international relations
are very different from national relations so is international politics and
national politics. Odinga conducted a perfect campaign but more like a national
campaign. He cannot be blamed for not having diplomatic roots or knowledge. In
international relations, it’s not the public declaration of support that wins
you positions, it’s the meetings that come after that and the discussions on
what will my country benefit from if I support your cause.
Historical Context: Francophone
Dominance in AU Leadership
The
continued Anglophone vs Francophone states was evident in this election. One
thing to note is that Francophone states vote as a bloc.
The Francophone vs. Anglophone
divide has been a persistent theme in African Union Commission (AUC) elections.
Since the transformation of the Organization of African Unity (OAU) into the AU
in 2002, Francophone nations have demonstrated greater coordination in backing
candidates, often securing key leadership positions within the AU.
Voting Patterns in Past AUC Elections
·
2012
AUC Election: A tight
contest between Jean Ping (Gabon, Francophone) and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma
(South Africa, Anglophone). The vote was divided along linguistic and regional
lines, with Dlamini-Zuma ultimately breaking the Francophone hold on the AU
chair after multiple rounds of voting.
·
2017
AUC Election: Moussa Faki
Mahamat (Chad, Francophone) won against Kenya’s Amina Mohamed (Anglophone),
reinforcing Francophone dominance. Kenya struggled to consolidate Anglophone
support, similar to what Raila Odinga experienced in 2025.
·
2021
AUC Election: Moussa Faki
Mahamat was re-elected with overwhelming support, showing the continued
strength of the Francophone bloc.
How President Ruto’s X (Twitter) Post May Have Harmed Raila Odinga’s AUC Bid
President William Ruto’s post
about his conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron—where he
highlighted France’s support for Kenya’s peace efforts in the DRC, Somalia,
Sudan, and South Sudan—may have inadvertently damaged Raila Odinga’s campaign
for the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson. The timing and content of
the post likely played into existing tensions between Francophone and
Anglophone African states, reinforcing opposition to Odinga.
By
publicly aligning Kenya with Macron, Ruto may have fuelled suspicions that an
Odinga-led AUC would be too closely aligned with Western interests, making him
an unappealing candidate for countries seeking greater independence from
European influence.
Odinga
had built his campaign on themes of Pan-Africanism, self-reliance, and unity,
all of which resonate strongly with countries advocating for a more independent
and self-sufficient AU. However, Ruto’s post shifted the focus away from
Odinga’s agenda and instead linked Kenya—and by extension, Odinga—to external
influences. This narrative may have played directly into the hands of Odinga’s
competitors, particularly Youssouf, who could then present himself as a
candidate untainted by Western ties. Given that Francophone states often vote
strategically to protect their collective interests, Ruto’s remarks may have
further consolidated their support behind Youssouf, significantly damaging
Odinga’s chances.
The way Forward
Following his victory, Djibouti's Foreign Minister, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, is set to be sworn in in March 2025. When all is over which it already is we should go back to the drawing board and focus on building our diplomacy and foreign policy as chances may be better next time if we decide to nominate one of our own. Throughout the AUC elections I have learned a lot of diplomatic lessons and so should everyone.